
Some would definitely say so. Each new console generation historically has amped up the bar for just how much power -- graphical, processing, et cetera -- needs to drive a game, and that means ever-growing development teams and ever-swelling development budgets. We're fast approaching that zero point where consumers will no longer buy games for a price at which game companies won't lose money. And with price points in this console generation initially ranging from the mid-$200s to $599, we learned, essentially, that very few people will buy a game console for $599~!!1. What if, in the next console generation, the "budget" console is the one weighing in at $400? How many people will buy competitive consoles then -- no matter how many extra media-oriented features are included?
There's a chance, of course, that innovation and hardware consolidation will eventually make consoles cheaper, as occurred with home computers. But the current format, wherein every few years we buy a more expensive new console and all of the higher-priced new games for that console, is absolutely unsustainable.
With some exceptions (Rock Band, Guitar Hero) consumers are likely to resist price points for a single game that exceed $60 or so. But, given pioneering innovation on the indie front, we've also seen how very small and simple games can be very interesting, very enjoyable and very marketable, so there are no guarantees that graphical sophistication and prices will necessarily continue driving up concurrently.
No matter what the case, we're reaching a ceiling, and something's gotta give. So what are the other factors in the space right now? Three big ones. First, the so-called "rise of a new audience" of casual gamers, or at least, lighter-engagement gamers outside the traditional hardcore demographic. Second, the increase in digital distribution and connected content; third, the success of the free-to-play biz model.
Tomorrow, we'll look at these factors one by one, to get an idea of the kind of results they might produce for the industry down the line -- and what my current darling, No More Heroes, has to do with my point. Okay?